'Baby Bust' in Barrington?
School enrollment projections indicate that almost one out of every five current students in Barrington will be lost over the next 10 years.
Barrington must be going through a baby bust.
Enrollment in the schools is dropping, and projections for the future show that the decline will continue for years to come with the current enrollment of approximately 3,350 students dropping by about 600.
The School Committee was presented with enrollment projections from the New England School Development Council last week that show that 18 percent drop in students through 2022.
Finance Director Ron Tarro presented that picture of enrollment as part of the landscape for the board’s discussion of the 2013-2014 budget.
"Enrollment is almost all the grades is going down," he said.
Tarro did not present the numbers as set in stone, but simply as projections that are part of the outside influences on the budget that need to be taken into account when crafting a spending plan.
“They’re not as reliable as we’d like them to be,” Tarro said of the NESDEC projections. “But they are a definite factor to consider.”
If the schools lost 600 students, for instance, Tarro said in a story in eastbayri.com, “we’d potentially be looking at closing a school.”
Tarro told the School Committee that NESDEC develops its projections by looking at birth rates and other demographic factors. He was asked to come back to the board with an analysis of past projections to see how accurate they were.
Shifts in enrollment are common over periods of time as students move through the schools. That usually results in staff changes and gains or losses of staff, he said.
Nayatt School, for instance, has five third-grade teachers right now. But third-grade enrollment at Nayatt is expected to drop next year.
And the number of first-graders at Sowams School is larger than anticipated. That may mean adding a second-grade teacher there next year.
With Barrington losing almost one out of every five students in the schools right now, substracting -- not adding -- teachers would seem to be on the horizon with Barrington in a baby bust.
Lorraine F
7:33 am on Friday, January 25, 2013
Will the 18% decline in students be an opportunity for cost savings and managing our high property tax burden? Not likely.
Pamela
7:42 am on Friday, January 25, 2013
Not to worry, we will fill those seats with the new affordable housing residents! We will be saving jobs, and our taxes can just keep going up!!!
Elizabeth Holmes
8:18 am on Friday, January 25, 2013
Does this factor in families moving to Barrington for the schools, or is it just based on projections foe existing population in town?
Joel Hellmann
9:26 am on Friday, January 25, 2013
NESDEC, the organization that does the projections has been used over the last 20 years that i have been following the school budget. They are remarkably accurate, as a district as a whole. there may be a loss in the high school and a gain in Hampton meadows but I can't remember when they were significantly off, including the addition of Sweet Briar. I don't know what formulas they use but they work very well. If they say we are going to lose 600 It may only be 575 but we are most likely looking at a major loss in student population
Beverly Romano
6:01 am on Saturday, January 26, 2013
Families are moving for employment reasons if necessary. Parents are having less children as they look at the long-term cost of child care for two parents working, raising them and college educations costs. Wonder if the enrollment is up or down at private and parochial schools.......
In the moment
7:10 am on Saturday, January 26, 2013
Joel, it's Hampden Meadows - how long have you lived here? Picking nits, but you're a public official now. And yes, Lorraine, would be nice if this situation were viewed as an opportunity to make Barrington taxes less foreboding - maybe we'd get more families in town whose children would fill those coming empty seats, or families staying longer instead of fleeing to Rehoboth the minute their last high schooler graduates.
DanComment
7:50 am on Saturday, January 26, 2013
In the moment: I thought it was "nit picking" and not "picking nits". Don't correct Joel because he's trying to give us some insight into information....
Joel Hellmann
11:00 am on Saturday, January 26, 2013
Hey guys. full disclosure: I am not now and never have been a great speller or typist. if that is what is important to you then have a good time. I love spell check and mine doesn't work on patch.
I am good with numbers and these projected numbers are really troubling. A.lot of the numbers I have been seeing lately are troubling.